Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Open Race Preview - 1st February 2012

3 weeks on the trot. What's going on? The opens are filling really well at the moment, I say keep it up! Here's the next OR Preview. Fingers crossed I can pick you a few more winners.


Just a quick note, however. The opinions given are solely my own. I look at the races and judge them as I see them, regardless to trainer name etc. If I think a seeding's wrong, I'll say it's wrong. I just tell the race as I see it!


The Swindon Puppy Standard


Cracking race to get started on. Considering there's the Henlow Puppy Derby on, and the build up for the Puppy Derby at Monmore under way, this is a brilliant entry. On top of that, I think this is the hardest race to call of the day.


The make-up of the race is pretty straight forward. You've got barrels of early on the outside, with Forest Bonjo having the best draw in the race. The railer's also have some early pace, whilst you're looking through the middle to the runners-on.


Looking at the dogs in particular, Sawpit Sydney, who doesn't seem suited to trap 1, has some good form at Perry Barr, and the tracks do compliment each other, thus he should run the track well enough. Borna George proved he can run the circuit with a win in the Inter track here. Saying that, the time here wasn't particularly great, certainly not race winnable, however he has recent form at Nottingham that can't be sniffed at.


Sharp Bullet is Chris Allopps new baby, and has a terrific trial at Hall Green. However, he didn't run particularly well at Henlow (a track which, to be honest, didn't suit him). He should suit Swindon, but I can't see him winning this race, though I feel he'll go off favourite.


Fraziers Vieri is Bill Black's representative from Poole. He has form in A1 at Poole, but to be honest A1 at Poole consists of about 28 grades within grades, and isn't the strongest form line in the world. dipping under the 27.00 barrier used to show quite a good line, however it has become quite a re-occurrence nowadays. Again, I'm not expecting much from him.


The two Swindon hopefuls run from the other traps, with Forest Bonjo being my pick, not just of the two, but of the race. This pup of Paul Foster's has some serious gears, a load more than what he's currently performing (which isn't an issue, remember we are talking about pups here), This pup can go very far. Rosshill Doll shouldn't really be counted out, as her form in A2 is rather decent. Her early pace has made her a 'ping gone' specialist.


My pick for this race: 6-1-3


The Swindon 509er


This race is definitely much easier than the puppy! Here's a quick low-down of the race


Eden Rumble makes his UK debut, and over a trip that should suit him for the time being. He's obviously more cut out for 6 bends, looking at his Irish form, however should run this trip well. Trials at the track are certainly of benefit.


Coolykereen Rum comes back to the track after romping up in an A1 at Hall Green. Why this dog hasn't been over 6 bends yet, I don't know. Still, he has a win over this sort of distance before and should go close.


Castleyons Kris isn't cut out for this race I don't think, the form doesn't stack up at all. Expect a double figure price (and probably a win now I've given him that verdict)


Scala Cosey is another that should really be going over 6 bends. She is a competition winner over a longer trip, I guarantee it. She posted a good time over 4 bends in her most recent trial, however the conditions of -40 would've suited her (was a wet day to boot). Fair play give her a warm up, but gosh I would love to see her heading for The Regency or something similar.


Forest Ted seems the standout choice for me in this race. He's been running much better in his last two runs, and has that kick of early to see the competition off at the first bend. Away and gone I say, its just a matter of staying well enough to see off the 6 benders.


Burwood Freddie is something of a track specialist, and has form over this distance. Tried out over 575 at Romford his last two runs (why, I don't know, he wouldn't stay that). He is getting on now, the old boy, but still has class. 


My pick: 5-1-2


The Swindon Arc Trial Stakes - 19:48


Why they're still being called 'Swindon Arc Trial Stakes', I don't know. Alas, we have four of the beauties to look at!


This race is pretty hard to decypher, as you have completely different dogs involved. Jamaica News, I freely admit, I don't know enough about. A1 form at Romford, with a couple of run on comments, doesn't really spell winner for me. Seneca is a cracking old boy nowadays, and actually looks to have a pretty good chance in this. He certainly has the track knowledge.


Trap 3 Glenbane Air looks a pretty decent sort. 28.50 Lifford and 28.69 Drumbo certainly aren't bad Irish times, but coming straight off of trials into the deep end gives him work to do. Saying that, replicating that sort of form, he could be a bit of a flying machine.


Cash For Chance has a good 28.35 Hall Green, but looking at it thats about it. The trap draw certainly isn't good either, a railer in 4 is bound to be a tad problematic. Saying that, an OR with 4 railers means one of them's got to get a tough draw! 


Tae Toe's trial last time didn't really cut it for this sort of class, and his form has dwindled recently. Looking at the card, he's coming back from a layoff, straight into the deep end. Swerve.


Silverton Blaze is another (I'll keep saying it!) that should be OR'ing over 6. He has some good times over 4 bends, but that's like arguing that Aero Majestic has a 28.90 round Sittingbourne. This dog needs 6 bends.


Easy one really!


My Pick: 3-2-6


The Swindon Arc Trial Stakes - 20:04


Arguably division 'C' of the trial stakes, with one stand out contender really. Mercurial Star, coming back from a layoff, is a fab dog, and this really shouldn't be much for a test for him. The recent trial time is a little slower than his best, but he can come back from that and win here.


For the places, its a different story.


Tinas Zodiac, trained by the Houfton clan, ran here last week and certainly wasn't disgraced, but will need to improve leaps and bounds to be a credible player in this race. Bangcrashwallop is also in the same boat. The look round benefits everyone, so expect a better race from him.


Knockane Hodge is a funny entrant for the trial stake. Sorry, but if I see that a dog can't stay 400m Romford, the last place I would come is Swindon. Saying that, I'm only looking at the 6 lines in front of me, might stay 600 Shelbourne for all I know.


World Charm will be a big player in this race, and knowing 'Alfie' he could just as easily lead up. As said before, he can win coming off the back or by pinging. Expect him to be 2nd favourite in the market.


Glenside Pearl has good lines in graded races, but looks more cut out to a slightly longer trip. A 500 at Nottingham or 515 Hove would be more up her street. Saying that, she'll run well enough here.


My Pick: 5-4-6


(Yet Another) The Swindon Arc Trial Stakes - 20:19


Good race this! Ding Hero looks to have the best draw and the best time in the race for the trip, and should break his maiden duck here quite easily. He's the sort of railer that I would rather see out of 2 or 3 than out of 1. He doesn't exactly strip the paint off the rail, but he does keep to his pitch well enough.


We have a fair few newcomers in this race, so I'll quickly run through them:


Shades Of Ace looks a bit on the poor side in this race. Not having any decent lines in particular (you could argue that the 30.63 Notts is fairly decent, but I'm not doing backflips about it). 


Mays Millhouse again is one with just decent form, nothing particular stand out. The times at Hove are pretty average, and the 35.86 Romford is what you expect from an average stayer round there. Saying that, he seems to have run from pretty much every trap in his last 6 runs, so the draw hopefully shouldn't be a biggie!


Coom Bullett comes back from a trip across the pond for a second crack at The Arc. The John Mullins trained greyhound has some sparkling times earlier on in his career, however hasn't posted anything exciting since. Don't be worried by the draw, as he does run middle. Why he was seeded on the rails is beyond me.


Farley Denny has seen the track a fair few times, and arguably is the challenger for Ding Hero in this race. He has some pretty decent times around the scene, including good times at Perry Barr (as covered before, Perry Barr to Swindon translates very well, one note to keep in the record book boys and girls!) 


Lordsbury Mayo is actually my forecast link in this race. He would've benefited from the look round last time, and is capable of mounting a challenge in this race. The one thing working in his favour is the trap draw, which should see him get a solo really. 


My Pick: 2-6-5


(Cricky, another one) The Swindon Arc Trial Stakes - 20:36


The top heat, and a pretty classy one at that. Quite a tough one to work out aswell, this could be a good betting heat. 


Trap 1 is Rockview Sail, recent hot favourite for the Coronation Cup. Unfortunately he was KO'ed in the final, otherwise he was a certainty. The times round Romford are pretty impressive, and the step down to 480 shouldn't be an issue. The lack of a look might be though.


Forest Dot I thought ran pretty well last time out being 2nd to Hernandez. Still pretty young and learning, I think she has potential. She's very much a ping gone merchant, and will be battling for the early lead with the 1 dog.


Killacolla Eagle certainly has 3rd-itis (if there's such a condition) but has been running respectfully. Don't expect anything major mind.


Maireads Hawk is certainly one classy dog. The Allsopp boys gave this dog a spin round last week, and he posted a respectable 28.84. Come on though, we all know he's capable of faster. This is a 28.50 dog on his day. The draw is a bit of an issue, he'll have to be foot perfect at the boxes and hope to get round in front.


Hernandez proved me wrong last week and broke his maiden in style, running particularly well. The time wasn't anything special, but it was still a win. He can improve, and improve and improve. This dog will have a big year. In this race, he'd do best to break moderately and hug a trap 4 line round.


Kingsmill Super massively let me down last week, but again the argument for needing a look around was there. Saying that, one thing that did make me query the race was that he cut the bend quite a bit, he did cut very much middle. He showed the early that he's more than capable of, but just got lost round the 2nd and the 3rd. Expect him to bounce back in style here.


My Pick: 4-6-1


Just a couple of other notes, today was a big deal for the Robson family, as two of their Swift Jade pups spun round for the first time in their novice sprint trials. They posted particularly good times in the 17.50 region, which is mightly impressive for babies. Law Together, Don Elliott's pup owned by son Clive, had his first 480m trial and won in 30.72, leading off the 4th. Running green rather obviously, there are bundles to come from these pups. Fingers crossed they prove to be even half of what their mother was. Good luck guys.


I must also make an apology that the Swindon Special hasn't been updated yet. I've been swamped with Degree work, hence a lack of time for any sort of meaningful time to do anything! It will be updated in due course, with an article on how the hare system at the track works.


One thing that has been done is the first of the trainer spaces. Do take a look at them, as there's some pretty nice photo's (taken by yours truely) on Kev's and John's. If any other trainers would like a trainer space, please feel free to contact me on 07817381038, or just speak to me at the track!


Fingers crossed for some winners guys, and good luck with all your picks.


Happy Punting!!


Chris 



1 comment:

  1. well done Chris,irrespective of results,nice to see somebody form a logical opinion or two.

    ReplyDelete