Here's my preview of the second round of The Arc. Some cracking races on offer on Friday afternoon, which should also provide some good betting opportunities.
Heat One
This first heat sees my pick to win the competition, Longwood Days, running out of trap 2 in which will be a battle of the railers. Jaytee Tiger, realistically needing 1 or 2, has been drawn in trap 4, which will see him drift very hard left out of the boxes. Looking at the make up of the race, the best drawn dogs in the race are Days and the sole wide seed Sids Dream. Dream put in a very brave performance in behind King Jaffa on Monday, and has early pace to burn. I do feel that he does need a much longer run up though, as he doesn't quite trap out, but shows terrific early (this is why he went over 509 I suspect)
Hey Gringo certainly took my eye in the first heat of the Arc. He railed like a cat round the last bend, and him being in one is of massive benefit to him. Farloe Titan ran credibly behind new track record holder Slick Santiago, matching him for early pace up to the half way point.
The big performer, however, was Jazz Apollo. Taking a pretty hefty whack at the bend, he steered clear down the back straight to win by a shade under 4 lengths in 28.56. I think if the clock is going to go again in this competition (which I would be betting that it will) this is the dog to do it. Getting a clear run to the bend is the key here, otherwise its plain sailing.
My Pick: 3-5-6
Heat 2
Really good race this, and one that will have people with all sorts of opinions guessing.
Ballymac Eugenie really hasn't impressed in the couple of spins its had around Swindon, and she doesn't really look like doing alot of damage in this race either. She's got an essence of 'Shaws Dilemma' about her, really classy in her own right but sadly not doing the business round Swindon.
Ding Hero is the local raider in this race, and should be looking to ping out like we know he can do. He's classy enough to be in with this sort of competition and challenge them, but he did qualify the hard way last time out. If he could edge the 1 out of it from the first bend he's in contention of reaching the semi finals.
Droopys Loner is one classy bitch. Trained by Dean Childs, she has early pace to burn, but doesn't really stay the 480 all that well. Saying that, Jolly Poacher never stayed it last year and won, and I can't see why she couldn't go all the way. She should get a free passage to the bend, and I expect her to be there or there abouts come the line.
Grandard Bound is next up in trap 4 for Stuart Mason, and I have my suspicions about the dog. I think he could've won by further in the first round if he had wanted to. I'm not for one minute saying he's a dodge or anything, just saying that I think he takes races in his own stride and does 'just enough'. To be honest, if they're winning, that's all that matters. Expect a late charge.
Droopys Lorenzo is my pick to win this race. The other Dean Child's hopeful has really taken to the Blunsdon circuit well and knows how to fly the lids. Posting sub 2.40 splits each time is a key way to ensure success in this competition, so hopefully we'll see more of the same from him. He'll need to keep in his lane, however.
Mays Gold was a rather suprise qualifier on Monday, having said that he has always shown that he has potential over these standard trips. He has a pretty tough task in this race however. Expect a double digit price
My Pick: 5-3-2
Heat 3
Tough race this one, however I think I've found a good priced winner in this in the form of Guinness Magic.
Magic ran really well in behind Jazz Apollo on Monday and is certainly classy enough to see the competition off. Posting times such as 27.52 Henlow does wanders for his CV. One thing to keep in mind is that Mondays run was his first run over 4 bends since the end of last year, so would've possibly needed the gallop. The trap draw, I don't think, is too much of an issue either, as I think he keeps his line well.
Longwood Fantasy is another that really took the eye in the heats. Having said that, he did take a while to get past Droopys Loner, and should've really asserted himself more in the closing stages of the race. Again, he's coming back into the fold after a spell off and can improve on the run.
To make up the places really is a toughie, as everyone did perform well in the heats. Coom Bullet was really impressive in winning the opening heat of the Arc. However, I don't think he's capable of putting a performance in like that again. King Jaffa put in a good all round run on Monday, asserting himself off the last bend to win his heat in a decent time. However, Jaffa would must prefer to be a tad closer to the rails in my opinion.
Bowtime Joey will always be a credible forecast and tricast link in these sorts of races, as he's classy enough to live with the 480m dogs but realistically wants a further trip. Boherna Bridge also ran a good bend in his first look of the track
My Pick: 6-4-1 (NAP)
Heat 4
My next best runs in this race, in the form of now-former track record holder Mark My Words. I queried the decision to seed him rails in the last blog, however the seeding has worked into his hands in this race. With Ballymac Cryan drawing two, I think he get a clear run up the rail to make all in the race. The only concern that I have of him is that, on the few occasions that I've followed him in competitions, he doesn't seem to take too kindly to the quick runs (Produce Stakes the obvious one that springs to mind). If he gets over this hurdle though, he could be a big player going into the Semis.
New track record holder Slick Santiago runs in trap 6 here, which to me is no where near where he wants to be. He's an out and out middle runner, and won't like being in the stripes. The only hope I think he's got of getting a good run round is if Bit View Micko in the 5 jacket doesn't hit the lids fast, that way he can possibly sneak into a middle-ish position round the 1st. Doing this, he'll give MMW a run.
For the places then, Spinkys Nod looks completely outdrawn in this race, and meeds the rails rather urgently in my opinion. With Cryan on her inside aswell, she could have a problematic run to the bend. Lenson Mac qualified well enough in the heats, however I think this is a tad too big a step up for him. He's certainly got the class, but I think he's more suited to an Oxford/Peterborough trip. Bit View Micko will be a double digit price in this.
Ballymac Cryan then takes my pick in this race. He really caught the eye running in behind Spinkys Nod in the heats, and is more than capable in this sort of class. It's now time for him to prove that he can live with the big boys. I don't think an E/W bet on him to win the Arc is the worst bet in the world.
My Pick: 1-6-2 (NB)
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