It's 509er time again! Here's my preview on the races, aswell as my NAP and NB from the graded card. Its a really good competition this time around, with plenty of outside dogs turning up to compete for the £500 grand prize!
The Swindon Monkey 509er - Heat 1
My Pick: Sawpit Sensation
Alot of this race really relies on which Crusty Crab is going to turn up. Crusty has the track record over this trip, posting 29.59 some time ago now, and has had his fair share of injury problems since then. He has trialled back very well, posting a 29.81 in his last trial, but a solo compared to a six dog race is a completely different ballgame.
To me, Sawpit Sensation is the form dog going into this race. David Hunt's son of No Joke Sherry has been strutting his stuff around Nottingham most recently, clocking some decent times for their 500m trip. His most recent form at Swindon is where he came second in the last Monkey 509er final to Ding Hero. He shares the track record at Perry Barr, and went into the Ladbrokes Mobile Arc as one of the favourites, so he certainly has the form book to back it up. He does leave his running a bit late, so you'd want him lying in a handy position off the 3rd to be within a chance of collecting. He likes a long run up as well. I'd expect him to be a pretty decent price (I'll say 7/4) against the Crab, so he'd definitely be worth a punt.
As for the others in the race, Queen O The Mall is outclassed and isn't really up with this level. Riverside Jess comes off the back of some Poole form, winning in a good 26.78. A good time on her Irish card is the 28.73 at Shelbourne, so she's worth putting in the book for a forecast link. Winslow Wonder is a good A1/A2 dog at Oxford, nothing more really. Head Teacher is a grader from Harlow, but put in a decent 29.25 calc first look at Swindon Saturday and was striding well, I'm expecting some improvement.
The Pick: 2-6-4
The Swindon Monkey 509er - Heat 2
My Pick: Droopys College (OR NAP)
In heat 2, I'm siding with one of the two Jo Burridge runners, Droopys College. College is out of the sam Droopys Jackie, which has thrown such dogs as Deanridge Rage and Rayvin Again, so he's certainly got some good bloodlines. His form at Poole is very good, posting 26.71 for their 450m trip, but also posting a very quick 38.96 (I believe the track record is Wise Totty's 38.68) for their stayers trip. This proves to me this dog is the full package, he has early pace and stays, ideal for this 509 trip. I also make him my OR NAP.
The placepot to me lies with Hernandez. Again, its a case of which Hernandez is going to show up. He sparkled just before The Arc, posting a very quick 28.51, thrashing a very good field in a trial stake. However since then he hasn't really done an awful lot. His Williamhill.com Derby campaign was pretty poor, and he just doesn't seem to be firing. We know he's more than capable, its just when the ball is finally going to drop!
As for the others in the race, Droopys Rosemary is one of the representatives for Dave Mullins running from trap one. She has a good time out last time at Romford, but their trip to this 509 is a massive step up. However, she has run 500m Sittingbourne, so there is obviously some feeling that she does stay well enough. The lack of a look is a concern.
Sawpit Sydney is in trap two, and to me hasn't really done all that well at Swindon in his last two visits. I don't think he's taken to the track really.
Omega Mick is Jo Burridge's second runner in this race, and has some very good form round here aswell as Hove and Poole. Looking at his card I presume that he's on the comeback from a spell of lameness. One thing to note is that the dog hasn't won a race in nearly 8 months!
Droopys Gizmo is Dave Mullins' other runner, and has a pretty decent card to him. Regular A1 performer at Romford, but he's never been tried over this far a trip. He has good breeding, being a litter brother to Droopys Boo.
My Pick: 5-3-6 (OR NAP)
The Swindon Monkey 509er - Heat 3
My Pick: Ardmayle Player
This is a pretty tough little heat. I'm marginally gone for Player, just over Farloe Orion. I certainly think its a race between these two.
Player has been round the open race circuit a bit in the past couple of races, posting a good win at Henlow and running well at Hove. This 509 trip is right up his street, and the switch-a-roo of tracks might've done him some good. Sometimes the switch of a track does wonders for a dog, fingers crossed it does it here!
Farloe Orion, for trainer Mervyn Jeans, has written his fair share of bad luck stories in running, I think should have a few more wins to his name for the performances he's given. He's a very strong finisher, arguably even a very short 6 bend dog, and should be flying home towards the end. He's got a very good draw in trap one, with trap 2 that should really be a middle seed, he should get a clear run up to the bend.
For the third place, I'm siding with Dave Smith's Farley Totti. He's been a bit out of sorts recently, but he stays well enough and is a class animal on his day.
My Pick: 6-1-3
Graded NAP: Hoots Mon
My graded NAP runs in the last race of the night. Hoots Mon, trained by Kevin Hutton, to me has a plum draw in trap four, with Eruption on his inside wanting the paint in my opinion, and with Baby Bubba needing the stripes. His Irish card is top class, and should be running at a better level than what he currently is.
Graded NB: Ardmayle Anna
My graded NB runs in race three in the shape of Ardmayle Anna. Chris Stringers bitch is only a baby (Aug'10), but ran really well last time out in behind Stockwell Linda. Linda showed some cracking early pace and went about four clear down the back, but Anna tracked her really well and finished strongly. I don't feel there is as much early pace in the race as last time. The only real danger is Bolt The Gate taking her ground into the first bend, as I feel from three he moves off just a tad. If she can pitch in two lengths behind him off the second, I think it's game over.
Thank you for reading this ladies and gentleman, and fingers crossed if you are following these tips that they come off for you.
Happy Punting!
Chris Watts
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