Well, spirits seem really high heading into the middle part of this competition. We have the best points total from the opening rounds, and should realistically be good things to get through this group. I believe we were as short as 1/200 with Paddy Power! To me, thats a bit nuts, as we have to go to two tracks now that really don't suit all that well. Still, anyone investing at those sorts of prices, good luck!
The next leg on our journey takes us to Sandy Lane, where we do battle vs. Poole and the home team Oxford. My general feeling about the leg is that we are going to struggle in some races, quite frankly. I don't think the draws have been particularly kind on our dogs either. Still, here is my low down of each race, obviously looking particularly at our dog's chances.
11:34 - The BAGS Track Championship Puppies
My Pick: Old Codger
I think the home team can start with a bang here in Old Codger. Trained by the Baker boys, this dog looks to be a good sort round Oxford, and has what could be an excellent draw in one, with Oxford's other, slightly down on class runner in two. A recent trial time of 27.00 looks good enough to win this race.
As for the Swindon dogs, and I know we are particularly short in the pups department, but the lack of any sort of early pace is a slight cause for concern. Plus, to be frank the times that we've posted round there are poor. I think that ours might struggle with the early battle, but possibly the points will come as ours seem to be the more running on types.
To me, of the two, Sharp Exit looks to be the well drawn, with railer Droopys Bass from Poole in 3. Sounds daft, but again Poole don't seem to have really bothered with trials, and round a track like Oxford, though similar to Poole, you could find their dogs veering anywhere round the track!
Aspiration's time in particular disappoints, but lets be honest this trip was never really going to be up her street. I think, out of all the races on Friday morning, this is going to be the one we lose the most points in.
11:48 - The BAGS Track Championship Standard
My Pick: Mercurial Lady
This could be a good points winning race for us, as the two bitches we have running look particularly suited to Oxford. I've sided with Lady literally on the time she posted on Monday. I personally thought the going was alot slower than what was indicated, meaning that she did a better time in my opinion. She's pinging well from the traps at the moment, as so long as she can get round the first bend in front she should find the line. A short head would be fine here!
As much as I think we can do well here, and actually I believe Oxford have a pretty poor line up in this race, Poole's runners look to have a cracking make up here. Distant Midnight for Pete Ruddick is a mega consistent sort, who again looks tailor-made to Oxford., Tommy Gun posted a very quick 26.76 last time out at Poole, which should replicate well here.
Tarty Toes, running for John Peterson, should take to Oxford like a duck to water. I think she can improve off the trial time, and possibly even win the race with the right make up. To me, however, I can see the 1 dog moving off, possibly causing some traffic problems.
12:04 - The BAGS Track Championship Bitches
My Pick: Shelbourne Nat
Here is where we can definitely pick up a good win in my opinion. Shelbourne Nat here looks to be drawn superbly on the fence. She trialled well last Friday, and has previous experience of the track, so she should handle the place well. Just sheerly on the draw alone, with Movealong Penny to me moving slightly middle on the run up, she should get a good run round.
Unfortunately our other prospect, Perles Minaj, doesn't look to be particularly well drawn. Trap 5 I don't think is ideal, and in her trial she didn't ping out of the boxes. On her Swindon runs, you'd say she would be well suited to the place, but her trial says otherwise. Fingers crossed she can come on from that. The saving grace is that she looks to have a slouch in the 6 box, and a hit-and-miss sort in 4. Fingers crossed she can find her trapping shoes and get a clear run round the bend.
One runner who looks to have a decent make up is Mallogs Amy of Shaun Gresham. The Poole raider, again bombing round without a look, looks an out and out middle runner, who has a good kick of early. She has some good times at Poole in top grade, and again looks suited to the track. The lack of a trial is a worry though.
12:18 - The BAGS Track Championship Sprint
My Pick: Grogeen Lodge
This race is going to be right up Oxford's street, as they run regular sprint graded races at the track. The time's are also very telling, with their runners being significantly faster than the triallers times there from Swindon and Poole.
Grogeen Lodge looks a stand out here. He seems very consistent sort in this sort of trip, and again looks like a trapper in every race he's in. The best time of 15.14 is also stand out compared to the rest of the runners, by a good length or so. This could be a very good day for the Baker camp.
For the amount of looks he's had at the place, and the consistency of his times, you'd have to say Primo Impact has a good shout to make some sort of charge on the race. Chris Stringer's dog has some good times at the track, and two recent wins over the sprint trip could be good form for this race.
Hoots Mon is also very well drawn, and in the form of his life at the moment, so fingers crossed he can keep up this excellent run of form.
I don't think too much of the Poole dogs in this one. To me, Brookend Merlin, and ex Swindon greyhounds, isn't of the class of the competition here. Catunda Luca, running for Jo Burridge, although the trial time was very good, hasn't really got enough form lines over a 2 bend trip for me to be positively backing him.
12:47 - The BAGS Track Championship Dogs
My Pick: Liosgarbh Way
My pick here is literally soley on the drawm as I do think this is a good 3/1 the field race. I went to trials on Monday, and one thing that really caught my attention was the way that Sligo Mick cut in on the first bend, then took a very much middle course round the rest of the track. It's amazing that a dog who's always been an out and out wide runner at Swindon can have such a different running style at Oxford.
Hence why I'm siding with Bob Hannan's Liosgarbh Way. He looks very well drawn, and has a pretty decent 27.05 on his card. Admittedly this was a bit of a freak time by the looks of things, however I don't think he did any harm in his last run, which I think wasn't bad at all considering being FcdToCk.
For the places I'm siding more along the lines of What A Disciple. Graham Wright's charge has been impressive round Poole recently, and has a cracking kick of early toe. He didn't run Swindon particularly well in the sprint, however he looks more tailor made to a short 4 bend trip. Romford could well be right up his street. Here, he's the best drawn middle runner in my eyes, and could take a commanding lead.
The Swindon dog's here haven't really got the times on the card to compete on the face of it. I do think Sligo Mick can find time on his second outing there, and at his pinging best could completely thrash the competition really. Primo Apollo doesn't look too well drawn here, and needs to be pitched handy to make a big run later on.
13:33 - The BAGS Track Championship Stayers
My Pick: Lacken Style
So the stayers pick goes to another Oxford dog here, in the form of Lacken Style. Once again for Richard Baker, Style seems to have the great make up for this trip. She's drawn in trap one, has a good kick of early, and seems to be wanting this sort of short six bends.
She ran a very credible race at Swindon, again running on strongly vs. Perles Minaj, and has a good line of OR form round here, just being beaten by 12 spots to Parkwest Leo. The time she recorded that day could see her win this well.
Initially my thoughts about this race, after hearing about his trial, was how far is Primo Ryan going to win!? However, he has the three box again here. Give him his due, he managed to just get round at Swindon and win, however being on a different track that's new to him is a whole different ball game. His time is excellent, and again looks to thrive over this trip. Fingers crossed he can bag some points here. If he can get round in front, then I don't think alot will catch him to be honest.
I think Droopys Harper is a bit of a weak link here. Nothing against the dog, as I'm a fan, but he's in completely the wrong box for the trip. Given the make up of the seeds (and we don't know the seedings as we're not the home track dealing with the draw), it would've made more sense to seed him rails, then he might've had a better pitch on the fence (though he still could've drawn 5). At trials on Monday, he cut on on the corners considerably, and then moved off on the straights. Out where he is he could well cause some carnage, which could open the flood gates for the six. Another issue is that he rather blew up on the run in, hitting the maximum distance for him. When you're not a particularly ping-gone merchant, and you don't really stay all too well, it doesn't particularly bode well!
I hope I haven't been too negative on here, as I've tried to look at the form objectively not as a Swindon follower. I think we do have some chances, and I think if we can keep the 40-odd point cushion up after the day I think that'll be a job well done. Remember, all the points I've made are literally my opinion and interpretation of the form. You can think I'm writing a load of tosh if you want, that's what's brilliant about greyhound racing, it's all opinion!
Speaking of opinions, feel free to comment on the bottom of this blog on what you think could happen in the races. It's brilliant to see other people's views on the races, or maybe even something I've missed etc.
Still, #UpTheSwindon!
Happy Punting, and the best of luck to all the Swindon dogs, trainers and owners.
Chris Watts
Your tips were rubbish last time and will be again!
ReplyDeleteI'm man enough to put them up for the world to see! Also man enough to take criticism :-)
ReplyDeleteGood mix of prices in there aswell, going by Bet365's early show.
See rubbish tips
ReplyDelete