Thursday, 28 March 2013

The BAGS/SIS Easter Eggstravaganza Preview



The BAGS/SIS Easter Eggstravaganza

So, Friday brings with it a cracking line up of races at Monmore, with 16 different finals taking place in the Easter Eggstravaganza competition. Having initially being a tad detrimental about the competition, after looking through the race card in better detail, it’s actually a pretty decent line up, with some particularly good races to look forward to. Remember, you can watch the finals in any betting shop, with greyhound racing being the particular highlight of the day. There’s certainly a lot of racing to take in, and here’s my take on the races: 

13:07 – Eggstravaganza Pups Final
My Pick: Klockwork Kindra

The one thing that hits home more than anything, looking through the card, is that the home advantage will obviously favour the Monmore dogs massively, none more so than this first race, which is actually a top draw puppy contest. Paul Sallis’s Klockwork Kindra has been moving very well in recent races, posting regular 28’s in both the IV race and in her trial at Monmore. The key to her race is the early pace, which she looks to have plenty of. The draw also really works in her favour, as the 3 dog will dart for the rails straight off, whilst the wide runners are legitimate trap 6 contenders, so she should get a solo up through the middle. It’s a competitive race though; expect Gortown Ben and Vanjohn to put in good races (the definite trio in the race).

13:22 – Eggstravaganza Sprint Final
My Pick: Big Blue Havana

Everyone knows that sprint racing isn’t really my thing, and when you’ve got a competition like this, with dogs coming from all sorts of different tracks, it’s really hard to make a decent assessment of the race. For example, the 3 dog, Ryves Rock, is actually a decent dog at Crayford; however that’s over 380m, which is their 4 bend trip; however it qualified him for the sprint.

My Pick here is Big Blue Havana for the in-form trainer Paul Young. He had a really impressive night Wednesday evening, and Havana looks a decent sprinter. His 13.75 win there is impressive enough to win this race. The only issue here is the draw, stuck inside a railer. However, from what I can read, there aren’t a lot of QAw types in the race (considering it’s a sprint and all?). A look round is also a benefit.

13:38 – Eggstravaganza Dogs Final
My Pick: Barracuda Frank

This is a toughie to fathom out, as all I can envisage is trouble. There’s a whole lot of early pace in the race, with the 3 dog, in my opinion, likely to move off, causing a few traffic problems. The 6 dog comes with a decent reputation, but from what I’ve seen of him he’s lacking a yard of pace to the bend.

My pick lies with trap 1, Barracuda Frank. He looks like he leaves his running late on, and has a plum draw on the rails. My thoughts on the race are that he can track the 2 dog round the bend (the likely leader), and hopefully take advantage of the non-stayers in the race. The finish will definitely come from 5 and 6; it’s just whether the 1 dog has that kick more early than those two.

13:58 – Eggstravaganza Stayers Runners Up Final
My Pick: Maverick Flame (NB)

A funny race this one, and admittedly one that I didn’t see scheduled! I’m presuming this is in place of the marathon. In this race, I have a rather soft spot for the 6 dog, Maverick Flame.

I’ve been watching this lass run at Sheffield in open’s there and, although lacking the class to beat the better types, hasn’t every really been disgraced in some pretty decent company. She’ll be the sort to come late on, but really there are only 2 dogs with the early pace to get round early (1 and 4). I have a gut feeling this is going to be a race won by a finisher. This race is a class step down for her, hence getting the nod, and the NB tag!

14:18 – Eggstravaganza Bitches Final – GEMSTONE ANNIE
My Pick: Gemstone Annie

So, our first runner goes here, in the form of the form of Kevin Hutton’s GEMSTONE ANNIE. Annie, bred and owned by the Robson family, is a funny sort in that I’m struggling to place a particular trip against her name. She seems to go well enough in four bend races, but always looks to stay further, yet didn’t really run too well at Romford. I’m of the belief that this 480 is too short for her, but actually she looks to have a chance of leading here. The 3 dog is her obvious danger, being a rails to middle sort with the equivalent early pace.

14:37 – Eggstravaganza Pups Final
My Pick: Courts Ad Stanly

Originally, I went for Craster Kipper here as a good banker for the meeting! However, my vote now goes to my second favourite, Courts Ad Stanly. Stanly, trained by Jim Reynolds, runs at top grade at Romford, and has the benefit of a couple of looks at Monmore. His draw looks ideal, as he's pitched on the outside of 4 railers, so he should get round and scoot clear.

14:57 – Eggstravaganza Stayers Final
My Pick: Kielduff College

I’m tipping another winner for Newcastle, and they look as though they could have a rather good day! College, trained by Jimmy Wright, is a really classy sort, winning regularly at Newcastle over 6 bends.  If you look at the form, you could argue that he’s been in the wars a bit. However, they run handicap 6 bends at Newcastle, and this dog always make the scratch box, meaning he always has to come right off the back. However, over an even-keel 6 bends, he’s a class above most.

15:17 – Eggstravaganza Dogs Final
My Pick: Dustin Eagle

Of course, as well as rooting for Swindon, we shall be rooting for the sister track, Poole! They look to have a cracking chance here in the form of Shaun Gresham’s Dustin Eagle. Eagle has been flying up the grades at Poole, winning some decent A1’s there in some cracking times to boot. His trial doesn’t read too well, but the look round is the key for a first trial.

The only hazard to him is the draw, which hasn’t been particularly kind. The 4 dog, Daithis Roscoe, looks like a seriously fast dog, and will be gunning for the rails early. Also, there’s a bundle of early pace in the race. So long as ‘The Eagle’ can get round safe and in front, he should win this one.

15:38 – Eggstravaganza Bitches Final – ALARMING JACKS
My Pick: Alarming Jacks (NAP)

Well, fingers crossed, we come out of this with a great winner in the form of Alarming Jacks. Jacks, trained by Kevin Hutton, has been running some excellent A1’s in good company, posting a best 28.34. She has absolutely bundles of early pace, and looks (to me) a serious Oaks prospect for later in the year. The draw is also brilliant, with the 2 dog lacking that yard of EP, and the 3 dog looking to move off wide. She should get a solo here, and will, I envisage, being one of the big stories to come out of the day. Don’t expect too much of a price!

15:58 – Eggstravaganza Stayers Final – DROOPYS HARPER
My Pick – Droopys Harper

This is a race that I have really taken quite a long time looking into, and I’m picking Harper mainly due to how I feel he’ll be priced.

My reading of the race is that the 1 dog is the early pace dog in the race, getting round early. There is a lack of pace on his direct outside, with the 4 dog being the ‘follow’ dog to go round with. When there are 5 railers in a race, I’d certainly rather see my dog in 5 if he/she can’t get trap 1. I feel that, so long as Harper can go with the 4 dog early, and follow it round; he’ll outstay the other early pace types and win this.

16:18 – Eggstravaganza Dogs Final – BLACK BEACH
My Pick: Remix

I promise that I don’t secretly work for Newcastle! They do look seriously strong in this competition, with the highlight coming from the early pace machine that is Remix. I’ve watched this dog several times at Brough Park, and he’s got some freakish pace to the bend. The times might not look too brilliant at Newcastle, but I think the 480 there is really his absolute limit. The 480 at Monmore is a lot easier to take to, and should make this race easy pickings.

The only problem I can possibly foresee, and this is where I may go off at a tandem, is that the lack of a look at the track. Monmore have a different set of starting traps compared to most tracks. They have an American style, flat fronted lid that may take some adjusting to. Most tracks operate with hydraulic, flat fronted traps where the lids actually rise straight up 90 degrees (Swindon operate the much older-fashioned curved front, roll on-roll off style trap, which I personally love). Monmore’s traps make a different action at the start, going up and in rather than straight up. You may have seen that Henlow operate the same style of trap. This can take some adjusting to, and may catch the early pace types out.

I apologise for that hideous description of starting traps!

16:37 – Eggstravaganza Bitches Final
My Pick: Ballymac Guitre

This to me looks like a really easy race to pick from, with the Nottingham-based Ballymac Guitre getting my vote here. She’s a good early pace sort, who has some seriously fast runs over 500m , though don’t let the times deceive you too much, the going at Nottingham recently changed so that +50 is the new normal, much like we did making the new normal +30. Still, the times that this bitch has posted are enough to win this race easy

16:57 – Eggstravaganza Sprint Final – FOREST BRACKEN
My Pick: Swift Cougar

Forest Bracken runs here, representing Swindon and trainer Paul Foster. I never really had Bracken down at as sprinter, but he certainly made easy work of winning the heat 2 weeks ago. His times are actually really decent for the trip, and again it’s a case of ‘shouldn’t be dismissed’. The lack of a look round is a worry, as with a sprint you’re going into the bend at full pelt, and when you haven’t had a look the tendency is to move off slightly.

My pick here goes with Swift Cougar. I think the draw works in her favour, on the outside of the pacey middle runners, where she can tuck in and hold the middle course. She has some decent form over a sprint trip, and has the benefit of a trial. The concern is the middle to rails comment, I’m hopeful that she doesn’t try and come in too much!

17:17 – Eggstravaganza Dogs Final
My Pick: Fivestar Gooch

My selection here is solely on the idea of following the decent line of form, and Gooch seems to be heading in the right direction. Derek Knight’s runner has been running in decent company in graded and the final’s race at Hove, and ran a really good race in behind Bubbly Lucky, who has since gone on to run a stormer on trainers championship night at Yarmouth, which (again, all opinions) really beefs up that run. Again, the worry is the early pace, and having to miss the trouble on the run up. However, Hove’s form is very decent, and Gooch should frank the decent lines.

17:33 – Eggstravaganza Bitches Final
My Pick: Round Woman

Round woman, trained at Belle Vue, has some really good form going into this final. She’s won her last 3 races well, however the times don’t particularly leap off the page. However, it’s her trial round Monmore that really takes the eye, posting a good 28.52. The sectional as well shows that she can ping, which is the name of the game in this race.

17:47 – Eggstravaganza Stayers Final – SWIFT KENNEDY
My Pick: Mordred Saul

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one to be scratching their head when Kennedy won his stayers heat of the Eggstravaganza! Obviously, no offence intended to the connections, but Kennedy came into that race in pretty poor form. I was struggling to place him race wise, as again he obviously needs further, but looked to be struggling over the 685m trip. However, credit where credit’s due, he ran an excellent race in winning the leg, and goes into this race fresh. It’s hard to see him winning this though, as there’s some decent company in here.

Mordred Saul looks to be the one to beat here. Trained by Kim Billingham, Saul has some really good stayers form over the 630, meaning the home advantage really should play into Monmore’s hands here. He’s got some good times on his card as well, certainly enough to win this race.

Keep an eye on Swift Lucozade though. Mark Wallis’ charge cramped in her trial at Monmore, but is certainly classy enough to beat these.

Well, 2000+ words later, and there’s the preview done. Apologise is I petered off slightly, but writing for 16 races is a bit of an undertaking!

I should say, on behalf of everyone at Swindon, I wish all the connections of our 6 finalists the very best of luck on Good Friday. Most of all enjoy the big day!

Happy Punting!

Wattsy,

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